Right, Mira. Six years of deficit and everyone just watched the buffer drain. The next question is who exactly had the capital and motive to build refining outside China…
Good question. But I’d reframe it: nobody needed a motive not to build. The economics just never made it rational. Chinese capacity existed, was cheaper, and worked. Why build an alternative?
Markets optimize for efficiency. Resilience is what you only miss when it’s gone.
China ran this exact script with rare earths in 2010. Quotas, restrictions, panic. Fifteen years later — same playbook, different metal.
What’s surprising nobody built an exit over six deficit years while there was still time.
The copper switch may trim demand. But the refining bottleneck holds regardless of what’s inside the panel. The gate is the gate.
Right, Mira. Six years of deficit and everyone just watched the buffer drain. The next question is who exactly had the capital and motive to build refining outside China…
Good question. But I’d reframe it: nobody needed a motive not to build. The economics just never made it rational. Chinese capacity existed, was cheaper, and worked. Why build an alternative?
Markets optimize for efficiency. Resilience is what you only miss when it’s gone.